![]() (If oncology drugs are excluded, the figure is 20.9%.) But this number masks a wide variation by therapeutic area. The key finding from their paper is summarized in the following chart:Īs shown, the overall probability of success for all drugs and vaccines is 13.8%. Their results were published in the journal Biostatistics in 2018. The data set included 406,038 trials (of which 185,994 were unique) 1 and well over 21,000 compounds. In order to derive the most accurate numbers possible for clinical trial success rates by phase and therapeutic area, a group of authors from MIT analyzed a mountain of data on drugs and vaccines from Januto October 31, 2015. Oncology drugs are the least likely to succeed, while vaccines are the most likely. However, the success rate varies wildly depending on the therapeutic area. In this case, the conventional wisdom is absolutely correct. The conventional wisdom is that most drug and vaccine candidates fail. "Success" means that the drug or vaccine eventually received approval from a regulatory body like the FDA. The best way to answer that question is to examine the success rates of previous drugs and vaccines that have gone through clinical trials. How many of them are likely to be successful? There are a plethora of drugs and vaccines in the pipeline to treat or prevent COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2.
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